Washington (Platts)--21 Nov 2015 745 pm EST/045 GMT
The refined copper market had a production surplus of roughly 80,000 mt in August, the International Copper Study Group said Friday, excluding adjustments for seasonality and Chinese bonded stocks.
The group's preliminary data for August also showed a production surplus for the first eight months of 2015 at about 70,000 mt, and a seasonally adjusted surplus of about 100,000 mt.
That compares to a production deficit of around 460,000 mt, and a seasonally adjusted deficit at roughly 430,000 mt for the same period of 2014.
After seasonal adjustments for refined production and usage, the copper market surplus stood at 16,000 mt in August, ICSG said.
In the first eight months of 2015, the group estimated that world apparent usage dropped by about 2% (295,000 mt) compared with the same period of 2014.
Excluding China, world usage declined by around 4%, ICSG said.
"Although Chinese apparent demand increased by around 0.5%, usage declined by 5% and 7% in the EU and Japan, respectively, and by 50% in Russia (following the withdrawal of Russia's cathode export tax in September 2014)," ICSG said.
It added that, on a regional basis, usage remained essentially unchanged in Asia while increasing by around 2% in Africa and in the Americas, while dropping by 11% and 63% in Europe and Oceania, respectively.
On the supply side, the group estimated world refined production rose by 1.6% (235,000 mt) in the first eight months of 2015 compared with refined production in the same period of 2014. It said primary production was up by 1% and secondary production from scrap was up by 3.5%.
"The main contributor to growth was China (up by 4%), followed by the Philippines and Indonesia where production was reduced in the first quarter of last year due to operational constraints," ICSG said, adding that output also rose 8% in the DRC. However, production fell in Chile and Japan by 3% and 2%, respectively, and was off 7% in the US.
On a regional basis, the group estimated refined output to have climbed in Africa by 8% and in Asia by 4%, while falling in the Americas by 2.5% and in Oceania by 19%. European output was flat, it said.
World mine production was up by about 3%, totaling 350,000 mt in the first eight months of 2015, ICSG said, compared with production in the same period of 2014, with concentrate production rising by 3.5% and solvent extraction-electro winning (SX-EW) inching 1% higher.
"The increase in world mine production was mainly due to a recovery in production levels at operating mines in Indonesia (64% growth in Indonesian mine production as in 2014 output was constrained by the ban on concentrates exports)," ICSG said.
Peru saw a 13% increase due to higher production rates at operating mines and ramp-up production from mines that started in 2014-2015, it said.
Mine reduction dropped in the US by 1% and in China by 3%.
On a regional basis, mine output rose by 1% in Africa, 3% in South America, 9% in Asia and 2% in Europe, but declined by 2% and 5% in North America and Oceania, respectively.
