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Crude futures move sideways as OPEC scrutiny intensifies

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2014-10-14   Views:489
Crude futures closed essentially flat Friday, snapping a recent selloff, as pressure mounts on OPEC to stem the tide of falling prices.

NYMEX November crude settled 5 cents higher at $85.82/b, while front-month ICE Brent ended the day up 16 cents at $90.21/b.

In refined products, NYMEX November ULSD closed 2.36 cents higher at $2.5602/gal. Front-month NYMEX RBOB settled down 1.74 cents at $2.2575/gal.

Crude futures were sharply lower overnight, with front-month ICE Brent reaching as low as $88.11/b, but began to rebound in New York trading and ended the day higher for the first time since Monday.

It was the second day in a row ICE November Brent flirted with sub-$90/b territory. The last time front-month ICE Brent settled in the $80/b range was June 2012.

Technical factors could be playing a role in arresting Brent's price slide, Barclays analysts said in note Friday.

Brent is headed toward $89.60/b, but below that level resistance looms around $88.49/b, where buying could pick up as prices hit lows last seen in 2012, the bank analysts said.

Barclays forecasts Brent will average $93/b from October through December and $96/b in 2015.

Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, said oil futures were due for an increase Friday.

"We were technically oversold on massive liquidation over past week, plus the huge build in the EIA report," he said. "To close flat, I'm surprised we didn't close a little stronger."

The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration showed a 5 million-barrel build in crude stocks, eclipsing analysts' expectations.

Attention is turning to the role of OPEC and whether the oil producer group will lower its 30 million b/d output ceiling at its November 27 meeting, or even earlier.

OPEC senior ministers have ruled out a meeting of the group before its scheduled conference, but that did not stop one member from calling for immediate action.

Venezuela's foreign minister, Rafael Ramirez, said Friday his country wants OPEC ministers to hold an extraordinary meeting to coordinate actions to stop the recent drop in oil prices.

The average price of Venezuela's oil basket was down $3.17 to $82.72/b this week, according to the country's Oil and Mining Ministry. In October 2013, the monthly average was $97.31/b.

"If prices plateau from here, then I think the Saudis will be able to wait until the next meeting before acting," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Consulting.

OPEC said Friday its 12-member collective produced 30.474 million b/d in September, an increase of 402,000 b/d from August. The September figure exceeds the expected call on OPEC crude in the first half of 2015 by more than 2 million b/d.

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it boosted crude output by 107,000 b/d to 9.704 million b/d in September.

The September figures did not reflect an OPEC policy to raise production in response to market conditions, but rather stemmed mostly from the ongoing recovery seen in Libya and Iraq, Lynch said.

"Production just happened to go up when demand was weak," he said.
 
 
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