Turkish baseload power for August delivery was assessed Lira 2.75/MWh lower week on week at Lira 176/MWh ($83.60/MWh, Eur62.22/MWh), but the three-day Bayram national holiday marking the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan reduced liquidity at the start the week and calmed recent high PMUM spot prices, with sentiment set to recover in week 32.
With Ramadan drawing to a close on Sunday, the market impact of the Bayram national holiday, also known as Eid, was expected before kicking off Monday, so there was little surprise surrounding the drop in liquidity and weaker spot prices.
Market participants told Platts that although Bayram ends Wednesday and a minority return to normal working hours on Thursday, much of the country will extend the holiday through to the end of the week, meaning the Turkish power market and industrial sector will not return fully to life until the start of week 32 on Monday.
In week 30, a number of Turkish players were anticipating a potential spike in the PMUM spot price by the end of the week, with demand pegged to further break recent record demand levels. However, this failed to materialize, as supply margins continued to be managed by releasing hydro generation at times of peak demand to prevent such sudden price movements past Lira 200/MWh.
The Turkish Energy Ministry said that daily power demand reached a record 807.8 GWh on July 10, up from the previous daily record of 799 GWh in 2012.
However, one trader told Platts that the record had been further broken by a fine margin later in July, but no official confirmation was given by the ministry.
The PMUM closed at 187.78/MWh (Eur66.39/MWh) last Tuesday, and hovered around that level for the rest of the week, failing to draw any closer to the anticipated Lira 200/MWh marker. By the start of week 31, the contract opened at Lira 155.35/MWh (Eur54.92/MWh) as Bayram began Monday, and settled at Lira 141.53/MWh (Eur50.05/MWh) Tuesday -- a decrease of Lira 46.25/MWh (Eur16.36/MWh) on the week.
HEAVY RAINFALL TO HIT ERZURUM
Despite the reduced holiday demand, temperatures remain high, with some extremely heavy rainfall forecast for the weeks ahead. The latest CustomWeather data showed maximum temperatures will range between 31-38 degrees Celsius across the country in the next seven days, with 34 millimeters of rainfall forecast in Adana and 11 millimeters in Ankara.
However, the Erzurum is expecting a significant 316 millimeters of precipitation, which is forecast to continue early into the following week.
Of Turkey's 1.5 GW of traceable wind generation, output was around 250 MW Tuesday lunchtime, according to a market source, and is forecast to rise to 600 MW later in the day and peak at 800 MW late Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Platts daily assessment for benchmark steel product, reinforcing bar -- an indicator of industrial consumption in the electricity market -- was up $1 on the week at $560/mt FOB Turkish ports Tuesday.
Turkish steel market sources said rebar export prices increased slightly in the week ended 25 July, as mills tried to push up their offers on the back of higher scrap and billet prices on the international market. The upcoming Eid holiday in wider Muslim countries has also slowed the market in terms of orders.
Many steelmakers also purchase thermal coal for heat and power to operate steel plants' electric-arc furnaces, and Platts assessed the weekly 90-day CIF Turkey 6,000 kcal/kg thermal coal assessment $3.50 higher on the week at $84/mt on Friday, amid increased supply fears concerning Ukrainian material and climbing South Africa FOB spot prices.
