NYMEX August natural gas futures fell below $4/MMBtu early Thursday in intra-day trading for the first time since early January as storage data came in strongly above analyst estimates.
As of 10:54 am EDT (1454 GMT), the contract traded at $3.970/MMBtu, down 14.9 cents from Wednesday's close.
The US Energy Information Administration reported an injection of 107 Bcf. Analysts had estimated an injection in the range of 95 to 99 Bcf. The number was also well above the 62 Bcf build last year and the 65 Bcf five-year average, as mild-temperatures depressed cooling demand.
Working gas in storage was 2.129 Tcf as of July 11, according to EIA estimates. Stocks were 608 Bcf less than last year at this time and 727 Bcf below the five-year average of 2.856 Tcf.
The storage data pushed the contract well below the $4/MMBtu mark, which has held since January 10 as the cold winter pushed storage levels to record lows. The last close below that level was December 4, when the front-month contract closed at $3.96/MMBtu.
"The net injection of 107 Bcf was more than expected, implying a further weakening of the background supply/demand balance, presumably on a further increase in supply," said Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures Perspective. "This has bearish implications for the forward data as well."
Jay Levine, broker at Enerjay LLC, said the injection was "higher than anyone expected" and said market reaction to the downside is "exactly as expected."
"What can you say besides, where's the heat?" Levine said. The contract has traded Thursday between $3.956/MMBtu and $4.110/MMBtu.
