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JAPAN DISASTER: Policy, supply chains cloud effect on US chems

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2011-03-28   Views:757
JAPAN DISASTER: Policy, supply chains cloud effect on US chems
HOUSTON-Complicated supply chains and the vagaries of energy policy cloud the effects that the multiple Japanese disasters will have on the US chemicals industry, an economist said on Thursday.

A massive 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami hit Japan on Friday. The disasters damaged the cooling systems at several nuclear reactors at the Fukishima-Daiichi complex.

The damage led to explosions and fires at the reactors, and workers are still struggling to avert a major nuclear disaster.

However, the crisis in Japan may have little direct effect on chemical trade with the US because the volume is relatively small, said Kevin Swift, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council (ACC).

The US chemical industry is expected to have revenues of more than $720bn (€518bn) in 2010, Swift said.

By contrast, US chemical exports to Japan were only $10bn in 2010, he said. That accounted for just 3% of Japanese consumption.

In fact, Japan's chemical industry mainly serves its manufacturing customers, Swift said. "The Japanese chemical industry is relatively balanced."

Out of all the US exports to Japan, about 40% are basic industrial chemicals, Swift said. Another 13% are downstream products such as resins, rubber and fibres.

Pharmaceuticals make up 32%, he said. Agricultural chemicals, specialties, consumer products and other chemicals make up the rest.

The indirect effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami are harder to measure, Swift said.

For example, Germany is shutting down seven of its 17 nuclear plants for a safety review.

A backlash against nuclear power would increase the world's dependence on fossil fuels, Swift said.

Crude oil and natural gas are key feedstocks for the chemical industry. An increase in costs could shrink margins.

Also, disruptions in supply chains may also trickle down to the chemical industry.

US automobile producer GM has suspended production at its Shreveport plant in Louisiana because of a parts shortage - caused by the disasters in Japan, the company said.

The suspension of automobile production in Japan is causing concern among the parts industry in Mexico, CNN Expansion reported.

Automobiles are a major end market for such chemicals as polypropylene (PP), nylon, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyurethane flexible foam, paints and coatings and synthetic rubber.

The ACC estimates that each automobile contains an average of $2,700 worth of chemicals.

Likewise, Parker Electrochemical has said that a significant amount of its raw materials are sourced from suppliers and manufacturers in Japan.

Parker produces materials used to make printed circuit boards. None of its plants are in Japan.

On the other hand, demand for some chemicals could actually increase.

Alternative sources of power could also become more popular. Since Friday's earthquake, solar stock prices have increased substantially.

An increase in solar cell production would raise demand for polyvinyl butyral (PVB) and ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA).

Similarly, a surge in wind-turbine production would increase demand for epoxy resins.

Reconstruction in Japan could increase demand for a variety of chemicals.

($1 = €0.72)

 
 
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