US commercial crude stocks likely rebounded slightly last week, following a massive bout of end of year destocking over the prior week, according to a Platts survey of analysts conducted Monday.
Analysts polled expect crude stocks to have clawed back a modest 1.5 million barrels in the reporting week that ended Friday, after drawing down 11 million barrels in the reporting period that ended December 28.
"Support for inventories may be offered by a rebound in imports, which typically recover strongly in the first couple weeks of the year," EOXlive's director of market research Tom Pawlicki said in a note.
Demand may add to inventories as well, he said, "as consumer demand may have been rationed due to late-December price gains as well as worries over the fiscal cliff."
Inventory data from the prior reporting period was "affected by year-end issues and tendencies of inventory holders to liquidate in the last weeks of the year," Pawlicki said.
"That trend typically reverses at the start of the new year and builds for around five months," he added.
Pawlicki expects stocks to have added 2 million barrels last week, slightly higher than the week-on-week change suggested by the US Energy Information Administration five-year average.
Price Futures Group energy analyst Phil Flynn expects crude stocks to have rebounded by 5 million barrels, padded by a 0.5 percentage point decline in total US refinery utilization.
On average, analysts polled by Platts expect US refinery utilization rates to have increased by 0.3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, US gasoline stocks are expected to have increased by 2.6 million barrels, below the week-on-week change in the EIA five-year average, which would suggest gasoline stocks might rise by 4 million barrels.
The expected increase in stocks would mark the eighth consecutive weekly build in gasoline inventories, according to EIA data.
Gasoline stocks are likely to continue to build through February, said Pawlicki, who expects that gasoline stocks rose 3 million barrels last week.
The analysts polled expect US distillate stocks to have increased by 1.5 million barrels last week, tracking closely with the week-on-week change suggested by the EIA five-year average.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly report Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT), while the EIA will release its weekly data Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).
