The estimated weekly production margin for a typical US Midwestern dry-mill ethanol plant edged up 2.8 cents, or 12.8%, on Friday to 25.48 cents/gal on a lower feedstock cost and a higher ethanol price.
The margin was calculated using data from Platts and government agencies, including average delivered corn cost, dried distiller grain prices, natural gas prices, certain blending costs and ethanol prices.
Estimated fixed costs are based on a 50 million gal/year Midwestern plant with 32 employees, each paid an average annual salary of $47,300.
The average estimated delivered feedstock corn cost dropped 8.16 cents, or 1.1%, to $7.4033/bushel. The average estimated dried distillers grain byproduct credit continued a four-week decline, dropping $9.41/st to an 18-week low of $259.24/st. The weekly average estimated dried distillers grain byproduct credit had not been this low since July 6, when it was at $244.32/st.
The lower corn price was attributed by sources to weak demand, especially in the export sector. The US Department of Agriculture's latest weekly export report, released Thursday, showed a 10,282 mt, or 6.1%, drop in current marketing year net export sales to 157,590 mt for the reporting week ended November 1.
The estimated denaturant cost climbed 1.1 cents from a week ago to $2.15/gal FOB pipeline, the highest level since November 1, while the estimated natural gas cost was stable at $3.76/MMBtu.
The denaturant cost was based on Friday's Platts assessment of Conway natural gasoline, which is the Kansas hub, while the gas cost was based on the November Platts Chicago ANR 7 pipeline monthly index.
The estimated ethanol price used in calculating the margin was the Platts Chicago Argo ethanol assessment Friday of $2.3870/gal, down 3 cents, or 1.27%, from a week ago as market participants pointed to short-covering as the major influence for higher ethanol prices this week.
