1. Price data
Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the sharp decline of international crude oil has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of the naphtha market, but it just needs support, and it is expected that the naphtha market will rise shortly. On May 23, the oil coke commodity index was 183.45, which was the same as yesterday, hitting a new historical high within the cycle and rising 174.26% compared with the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The period refers to 2012-09-30 till now)
2. Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the storage of locally refined petroleum coke was low, and the price continued to rise. The downstream demand for low sulfur coke was poor, and the price fell slightly. Aluminum enterprises have good profits, some refineries have been overhauled, and supply and demand have double effects. The price of medium and high sulfur coke continues to rise.
Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market's concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.
Downstream: the downstream demand of carbon enterprises is stable, and the market price is stable, but the rising price of raw materials puts pressure on the cost of carbon enterprises; The price of calcined coke was stable; This week, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the lower reaches fell, reaching 18460.00 RMB/ton as of May 23; Recently, the silicon metal market is greatly affected by the factors of supply and demand. The relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced, and the short-term silicon price is still strong.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week's average rise or fall was - 1.04%.
According to the petroleum coke analysts of SunSirs, the storage of petroleum coke from local refining companies is low. At present, the market supply and demand are good, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is still high. It is expected that petroleum coke will be high shortly.
