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Crude hit six-week highs as market eyes US, Europe demand recovery

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2021-05-06   Views:179
Improved global demand outlooks and a late session slide in the US dollar pushed crude oil futures to settled at their highest since mid-March on April 29.

NYMEX June WTI settled $1.15 higher at $65.01/b and ICE June Brent was up $1.29 at $68.56/b.

Signs of improving energy demand in the US, Europe and China were supporting prices despite recent COVID-19 flare ups in India, analysts said.

"[US] crude oil imports increased to over 6.6 million barrels per day, putting them at their highest level since early July 2020, which also points to higher US demand," Commerzbank oil analyst Eugen Weinberg said in a note, referring to US Energy Information Administration data released April 28.

It was the highest settlement for the front-month WTI and Brent contract since March 15.

NYMEX May RBOB settled up 2.77 cents at $2.0999/gal and May ULSD climbed 2.28 cents to $1.9614/gal.

Widespread vaccination efforts have significantly curtailed US COVID-19 infections, supporting outlooks for robust demand growth during the second half of 2021.

In New York City, COVID-19 positivity rates have plunged below 4% in recent days, and on April 29 mayor Bill de Blasio announced the city plans to lift all restrictions on restaurants, retail and business and "fully reopen" on July 1.

"Last year, COVID-19 upended seasonal demand during the peak US driving season. This year with the US vaccination programmes progressing, we should be seeing a return to the traditional driving season so it's likely traders will be taking a long position on oil," Fat Prophets research analyst David Lennox said.

Underscoring bullish expectations for US energy demand, US initial weekly unemployment claims fell 13,000 to 553,000 in the week ended April 24, Department of Labor data showed April 29. The weekly claims were the lowest since the start of the pandemic lockdowns in March 2020, though they exceeded market estimates of around 540,000 and are still more than double what was seen ahead of the pandemic in February 2020.

In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron on April 29 said the government will begin to ease some pandemic restrictions put into place last month beginning May 19. Meanwhile new COVID-19 cases in Germany have reached a two-week low, national health officials said, according to media reports.

"Crude prices are rising on global reopening momentum," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said in a note. "The crude demand outlook is getting a big boost from Europe and that should overcome some of the risks across India and many emerging markets."

The oil price rally slowed midday amid an uptick in the US dollar, but oil again moved higher in early afternoon trading as the dollar rally faded. The ICE US Dollar Index was holding around 90.6 in afternoon trading, up slightly from a nine-week low April 28 close of 90.593 but still well below its session high 90.77.
 
 
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