1.Price data
As of April 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6530.00 RMB / ton, up 2.83% compared with 6350.00 RMB / ton on April 12. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6600 RMB / ton.
As of April 16, the average ex-factory price of domestic local straight run naphtha is 6375.00 RMB / ton, 4.08% higher than that of April 12, 6125.00 RMB / ton, and the actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha is about 6400 RMB / ton.
On April 16, Naphtha Commodity Index was 80.59, the same as yesterday, down 21.47% from the highest point of 102.62 (2012-09-24) in the cycle, and up 90.79% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period: 2012-09-01 to present)
2.Analysis of Influencing Factors
This week to refinery naphtha prices continue to rise, refinery inventory pressure is large, just need to deal mainly.
Upstream: The international oil price rose sharply, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its crude oil demand forecast. Then, the inventory data of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) showed that the US crude oil inventory fell for the third consecutive week, boosting people's optimistic expectations for the recovery of energy demand.
Downstream: According to the SunSirs monitoring, This week, the price of toluene rose continuously. On April 16, the price of toluene was 5611.00 RMB / ton, and on April 12, it was 5452.00 RMB / ton, up 159 RMB / ton, an increase of 2.92%. The price of mixed xylene rose continuously this week. On April 16, the price of mixed xylene was 5740.00 RMB / ton, and on April 12, the price was 5490.00 RMB / ton, up 250 RMB / ton, or 4.55%. As for the PX market, the price of PX remained stable this week. As of the 16th, the domestic ex-factory price of PX was 6,400 RMB / ton, which remained unchanged compared with the price at the beginning of the week.
Industry: According to the SunSirs price monitoring, In the 15th week of 2021 (4.12-4.16), there were 11 commodities in the energy sector that had a month-on-month rise in the list of commodity price rises and falls, among which 2 commodities had a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The top three gainers were WTI (7.06%), Brent (6.34%) and gasoline (4.55%). There were a total of three kinds of commodities that declined from the previous month, and the top three products were liquefied natural gas (-1.45%), asphalt (-0.64%) and dimethyl ether (-0.52%). This week, the average gain/loss was 2.18 percent.
3.Future forecast
Energy analysts at the SunSirs, Recently, the naphtha market is affected by the rise in the price of international crude oil, the market transaction is limited, the local naphtha inventory pressure is large, the downstream just need to purchase mainly, the current local refinery equipment maintenance, the naphtha demand is limited, it is expected that the recent local naphtha price is mainly affected by crude oil, the price will rise.
