Before the Spring Festival, most enterprises in Northwest China have pre sold methanol production to the end of this month, so some low-cost goods in Northwest China will continue to be sold to the eastern region in the short term. Therefore, the possibility of a sharp rise in the price of methanol in the mainland in the short term is low. At the same time, the decline in freight rates corresponds to the rise in the price of methanol in the northwest, and the price of methanol in the eastern coastal areas will not fluctuate greatly.
This week, logistics has not yet recovered, and most downstream enterprises have not started purchasing, but some markets performed well, and methanol prices rebounded. Among them, the mainstream delivery price in Northern Shaanxi is 1,650 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival. Due to the large number of low-cost goods pre sold by mainland manufacturers before the Spring Festival, the methanol market after the spring festival may fluctuate in the short term.
At present, the cost of imported methanol is 2,450-2,530 yuan / ton, which is higher than the spot sales price in the port area. Therefore, the import enthusiasm of traders has declined, the import volume this month is seriously lower than expected, and the inventory in the port area continues to decline. As of the Spring Festival, the total inventory of methanol in coastal areas was about 950,000 tons, about 80,000 tons lower than that in early February, and about 80,000 tons lower than that in the same period last year. And most of the inventory is downstream standing stock of raw materials, supply pressure is not big. The saleable inventory was 200,000 tons, lower than 150,000 tons in the same period of last year, which was on the low side in recent five years. The inventory and saleable inventory in coastal areas have been reduced to a reasonable level.
Due to the decrease of imports during the Spring Festival holiday and the low marketable goods in the mainland, the price of methanol may rebound to a certain extent in the near future, but the differentiation trend between the mainland and ports, spot and futures will also be maintained for a period of time. First, the mainland market is weak in the short term, and it is difficult to make a big improvement, which will seriously restrict the methanol price rebound in the port area. Second, the port area can sell less goods and imports, coupled with the opening of downstream replenishment after the festival, short-term methanol has a certain rebound momentum.
From the perspective of futures market, before the Spring Festival, the market expects methanol supply to increase and demand to be weak in the second quarter, adding up the reality that chemical products are generally weak, and methanol price is weak. However, during the Spring Festival, international crude oil prices rose strongly, and the raw material side improved significantly. Combined with methanol fundamentals, the expectation is weak, the reality is strong, and the trend is tangled.
In short, after the Spring Festival, China methanol market may show a differentiated trend, with short-term ups and downs of the mainland and ports, futures and spot varying.
