Internal and external trends: Today, the LME lead opened low and fluctuated. As of 15:18 Beijing time, it was reported at 2042 US dollars/ton, down 0.65% daily. Shanghai Lead’s main 2103 contract rose first and then fell, trading at 15665-15315 yuan/ton during the day, and closing at 15430 yuan/ton in late trading, down 0.8% from the closing price of the previous trading day; trading volume was 66,890 lots, down 24986 lots; Positions are 45623 hands, a daily decrease of 2403 hands. Basis strengthened to -80 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead price difference from February to March was -45 yuan/ton.
Market focus: The US dollar index in Asia continues to fluctuate, and is currently trading at 90.45, up 0.1% daily. Ma Jun, Central Bank of China: Monetary policy should be shifted appropriately and GDP growth targets should be permanently cancelled; bubbles in some areas have already appeared.
Spot market: On January 26, spot 1# lead was quoted at RMB 15,300-15,400/ton, and the average price was RMB 325/ton higher than the previous trading day. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that some traders take orders for long-term orders, and the overall terminal demand is not good. They are mainly cautious and wait and see.
In terms of inventory: Shanghai lead warehouse receipts reported 34,850 tons, an increase of 99 tons per day. As of January 25, LME lead stocks were reported at 113,175 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the 18th consecutive drop was the lowest in more than a month. At the same time, as of the week of January 22, the Shanghai lead stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 50,811 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,640 tons, which also fell for two consecutive weeks to a one-month low.
Main positions: Shanghai Lead's main 2103 contract top 20 long positions 28,279 hands, short positions 34929 hands, net short positions 6650 hands, daily reduction of 105 hands, short positions are larger than long positions.Market research and judgment: On January 26, the main Shanghai lead 2103 contract rose first and then fell, and the bulls lightened their positions. During the period, market data was weak, and the market was concerned about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. The continued rise of the US dollar index put pressure on base metals. In terms of spot stocks, inventories in the two cities continued to decline, some traders took orders for long-term orders, and the overall terminal demand was poor. Technically, the daily KDJ index of futures prices turned down, and the bottom is concerned about the 5-day moving average support. Operationally, it is recommended to sell high and buy low between 15650-15250 yuan/ton and stop loss at 200 yuan/ton each.
