NYMEX March crude futures settled 14 cents lower at $99.56/barrel Friday, while RBOB futures closed higher after rallying on news of a refinery upset in the US Northeast.
February RBOB traded to a five-month high of $2.9677/gal, before settling up 8.02 cents at $2.9268/gal on an issue with an FCC at ConocoPhillips' 238,000 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey. The company does not comment on its operations, but sources said the FCC was shut, although the reason for it was unknown.
The front-month RBOB crack spread also jumped, rising $3.37 to $23.22/b, basis WTI, while the crack basis Brent settled up $2.56 to $11.32/b on the day. That's up from a low of minus $5.40/b in mid-November.
February heating oil settled 1.69 cents higher at $3.0704/gal and ICE March Brent settled up 67 cents at $111.46/b.
"There has been a real worry in the market about fuel supply with refinery capacity an issue after Northeast refineries have shut and with Petroplus and Hovensa as well," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy.
Also Friday, PDVSA said scheduled maintenance work, which will last about four months, will start Monday on the 108,000-b/d FCC at state oil company's Amuay refinery.
Poor margins have closed several refineries over the past year, and this week financially beleaguered European refiner Petroplus filed for insolvency, casting doubt over the future of its two remaining plants in operation. A source at the company said Thursday that the 220,000 b/d Coryton plant in England will run out of crude in a matter of days.
In the Caribbean, the 350,000 b/d Hovensa refinery in St. Croix is being shuttered, also because of poor margins, owners Hess and PDVSA said last week. Hess also said this week that it may have to shut its 70,000 b/d Port Reading, New Jersey, plant for three weeks to deal with an FCC problem, which was also bullish for the NYMEX RBOB contract.
During the morning rally in RBOB, other sources said talk of a midcontinent refinery shutting added to upside in futures, although no closure has been confirmed.
Data from the US showed that real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2011, which was below market consensus of 3%. This follows a growth rate of 1.8% in the third quarter. Real GDP increased 1.7% from 2010 to 2011 overall, according to an advance estimate from the Commerce Department.
"The US Fed's case that the economy is under-performing was bolstered by this morning's Q4 GDP reading," said Mike Fitzpatrick of Kilduff Group in a note. "With all the excitement over consumer spending over the holidays, this is a disappointment."
He added that consumers did dig deep as the savings rate was down noticeably for the quarter. But much of the growth was attributable to an increase in business inventories, which accounted for 1.94% of the growth.
