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USDA cuts US corn production, year-end stocks estimates

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2020-09-15   Views:20
The US Department of Agriculture Sept. 11 cut its estimates for US corn acreage, yield, output and ending stocks for the marketing year 2020-21 (September-August) in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The USDA sees domestic corn production of 14.9 billion bushels (378.47 million mt), lower than the previous estimate of 15.278 billion bushels in August.
Harvested area under corn is seen at 83.5 million acres, lower than 84 million acres estimated earlier, and corn yields are seen at 178.5 bu/acre, lower than August's estimate of record high yields of 181.8 bu/acre.

Year-end stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year for US corn are seen at 2.503 billion bushels, down from 2.756 billion bushels in August.

The reductions in US corn production and yield estimates are in line with the market expectations.

The average trade estimate for US corn yield was at 178.3 bu/acre, while production estimate stood at 14.898 billion bushels.

Drought conditions in many parts of the US, and a recent derecho that hit the largest corn producing state -- Iowa on Aug. 10 have cut the corn yield.

Corn crop conditions dropped 10 percentage points drop in one month and were reported to be at 61% good to excellent as of Sept. 7 compared with 71% good to excellent on Aug.10.

Analysts were expecting a reduction in harvested acreage due to a resurvey of harvested acres in Iowa conducted by USDA's statistics arm to assess the impact of the derecho.

S&P Global Platts Analytics latest estimate for harvested acreage under US corn for the 2020-21 marketing year is 83.1 million acres.

Platts Analytics estimated US corn yield at 178.8 bu/acre, and production to be at 14.858 billion bushels.

USDA's forecast for total corn supplies in the US for 2020-21 decreased to 17.178 billion bushels from 17.531 billion bushels previously.

Feed and residual demand is seen at 5.825 billion bushels, lower than 5.925 billion bushels last month.

US corn exports estimate for 2020-21 was increased to 2.325 billion bushels, from 2.225 billion bushels earlier. "Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies in competitor countries," the USDA report said.

For 2020-21, the USDA estimate for corn used for ethanol in the US was lowered to 5.1 billion bushels from 5.2 billion bushels in August.

Platts Analytics has estimated US corn exports for the 2020-21 marketing year at 2.285 billion bushels, while corn used for ethanol is estimated at 5 billion bushels.

The USDA's forecast for the season average farm price for US corn in 2020-21 was lifted to $3.50/bu from $3.10/bu earlier.

Concerns of a drop in yield for US corn from dry weather, damage from the derecho, along with higher buying from China have pushed US corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The most-active CBOT corn contract rose over 40 cents over the last one month to trade at $3.66/bushel on Sept.11.

For the 2019-20 marketing year, the USDA lowered its estimate for US corn exports in 2019-20 to 1.765 billion bushels from 1.795 billion bushels in August.

The USDA maintained its estimate for corn production in the US in 2019-20 at 13.617 billion bushels. It also maintained the estimate for demand for corn for ethanol for 2019-20 at 4.85 billion bushels.
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