The US Department of Agriculture raised US soybean production forecast for 2020-21 marketing year, which runs from September to August, by 10 million bushels over June estimates to 4.135 billion bushels due to higher harvested area, according to World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report released July 10.
Harvested area, which was forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month, the USDA said.
The soy yield per harvested acre was set at 49.8 bu/acre, up 5% on the year, but steady on June report, the USDA added.
The soybean exports for 2020-21 were forecast at 2.050 billion bushels, up 400 million bushels year on year, but steady from June expectations. The ending soy stocks for the same period were up 30 million bushels on June estimates at 425 million bushels, but down 195 million bushels on the year, the report said.
Average market estimates for US soybeans ending stocks in 2020-21 were at 416 million bushels.
S&P Global Platts Analytics forecast the 2020-21 US soybean acreage at 83.8 million acres, yield at 50 bu/acre, soybean production at 4.150 billion bushels, soy exports at 2 billion bushels and ending stocks at 487 million bushels.
The 2020-21 US season-average soybean price was projected at $8.50/bu, up 30 cents on June estimates partly reflecting higher price expectations following the June acreage report, the USDA said. The soybean meal price is projected at $300/short ton, up $10 from last month and soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.0 cents/pound.
2019-20 ESTIMATES
Soybean estimate changes for 2019-20 include higher crush, lower residual use, and higher ending stocks, the USDA report said.
The US is estimated to export 1.650 billion bushels of soybeans in 2019-20, steady on June estimates, the report added.
Soybean residual use is reduced 50 million bushels, reflecting June 1 soybean stocks reported in the recent Grain Stocks report, and reported soybean use through May, the USDA said.
Soybean ending stocks for 2019-20 are projected at 620 million bushels, up 35 million from last month, the report said.
The average market estimate for 2019-20 US soybean ending stock was 584 million bushels.
Platts Analytics forecast the 2019-20 US soybean acreage at 76.1 million acres, yield at 47.4 bu/acre, soy production at 3.552 billion bushels, exports at 1.675 billion bushels and ending stocks at 569 million bushels.
GLOBAL
The 2020-21 global soybean ending stocks were reduced 1.3 million mt from June estimates to 95.1 million mt as lower stocks for Brazil and China are partly offset by higher US stocks, the USDA said.
For Brazil, the 2019-20 crop is increased 2 million mt to 126 million mt, reflecting higher yields, the report said.
Brazilian soy exports in 2020-21 marketing year (October - September) are increased 4 million tons to 89 million mt, leading to a 2 million mt reduction to ending stocks, the report added.
China's 2019-20 balance sheet changes include a 2 million mt increase in imports from June estimates to 96 million mt and a 1 million mt increase to crush, resulting in higher ending stocks, the USDA said.
For 2020-21, China's higher beginning stocks are offset by higher crush, leading to lower ending stocks, the report said.
