Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute should show a 2.25 million-barrel draw in US commercial crude inventories for the week ending December 16, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Refiners should continue to keep crude runs high, while imports are expected to drop, analysts said, resulting in a stock decline. Analysts expect refinery operations to climb 0.30 percentage points to 85.4% of capacity, based on last week's EIA data.
"This week's [EIA] report has traditionally given us declines in crude oil imports as refineries slow their end-of-year imports," said Cameron Hanover analysts in a report. "Typically, though, they increase refinery runs and utilization rates as the year winds down, but they prefer to pull barrels from storage."
The five-year average of the EIA data for the week shows US crude stocks dropping roughly 5.5 million barrels, and imports falling 240,000 b/d. The five-year average shows stocks rising in the first quarter as refinery runs decline.
The data may show a drop in US Gulf Coast crude imports as fog delayed vessel boardings last week in the Houston Ship Channel. The channel serves a total of eight refineries, with a total capacity of 2.23 million b/d, according to Platts and EIA data.
Analysts polled by Platts were looking for a distillate stock draw of 600,000 barrels, with demand outpacing production likely remaining near record high levels.
Still, demand has eased in recent weeks. Demand on a four-week moving average the week ending December 9 was 3.795 million b/d, down from nearly 4.3 million b/d the week ending November 11, the EIA data shows.
US distillate production was down just 56,000 b/d at 4.976 million b/d the week ending December 9, despite a drop in refinery operations. "In the week ahead, we think inventories could slip by 0.5-1.5 [million barrels] after rising the prior three weeks, as last week's 2.6% drop in refinery operating rate should translate into reduced production," said Citi Futures analyst Tim Evans in a report. "A minor decline is relatively normal at this time of year, with inventories falling 0.6 [million barrels] in the same week of 2010 and by 0.3 [million barrels] on average over the past five years."
Analysts were expecting a 1.75 million-barrel build in US gasoline stocks, as is the historical norm this time of year. The five-year average of the EIA data for the week shows gasoline stocks up roughly 1.8 million barrels.
Gasoline imports, while still below the five-year average, have recovered from the lows seen in September and October. Imports at 776,000 b/d the week ending December 9 were up from 418,000 b/d October 7.
Recent activity in the clean tanker market suggests steady imports. Spot rates on the Northwest Europe to US Atlantic Coast clean tanker route have risen to $29.50/mt Monday from $20.79/mt on December 1, according to Platts data. Although gasoline traders said that the dramatic increase in freight rates could soon close the arbitrage to the US.
