The New York Independent System Operator anticipates power demand this
winter will be slightly lower than last winter, with peak consumption of
24,123 MW expected, compared with last winter's peak of 24,728 MW, it
said Thursday.
"Cold weather conditions over the past few winters have allowed the
NYISO, the state and generators to improve coordination in order to
maintain reliability," Wes Yeomans, the grid operator's vice president
of operations, said in a statement.
"This year's peak demand forecast is slightly lower than last winter
and we anticipate having adequate supply throughout the 2019-20
winter," Yeomans said.
Peak demand last winter reached 24,728 MW on January 21, the third
day of a four-day cold weather event, NYISO said. New York's all-time
winter demand peak was set in 2014, during multi-day polar vortex
conditions that pushed demand to 25,738 MW.
In six of the last 15 years, the NYISO footprint has seen a peak
load of 25,000 MW or more, Yeomans said during a conference call with
reporters.
He added that last winter there were only two cold snaps that lasted
for two or three days, noting these were not difficult to survive from a
reliability perspective.
However, the winter before that, New York had a 13- to 14-day cold
snap from late December into early January "and that's where we have to
pay attention to burn rates at oil facilities and replacement rates to
ensure they can keep up with the burn rate," Yeomans said.
Q3 POWER PRICES FALL
The highest recent winter power price spike corresponded with the
polar vortex conditions in 2014, when daily average day-ahead prices in
the New York City zone reached about $450/MWh, according to a NYISO
presentation.
The next most significant recent power price spike occurred during
the extended cold snap in January 2018, when average day-ahead prices in
New York City topped $200/MWh.
Average all-in power prices in the third quarter of 2019 fell in all
areas of the grid operator's footprint and ranged from $22/MWh in the
North Zone to $57/MWh in New York City, down 14% to 42% compared with
the same period last year, according to Potomac Economics' quarterly
power market report. Potomac is the NYISO's independent market monitor.
HIGHER WINTER GAS PRICES
Overall, S&P Global Platts Analytics' outlook for the coming
winter's electricity prices in downstate New York is higher than last
winter's, driven primarily by expectations of higher gas prices in New
York, Kieran Kemmerer, a power market analyst with S&P Global Platts
Analytics, said.
NYISO does not forecast power prices, but most long-term outlooks
for this winter show it being slightly warmer than last, Yeomans said on
the conference call. But that does not mean much in terms of
reliability because even an above-average temperature winter could have
five, six or 10 days that are "brutally cold," he said.
Resource capacity, including generation, imports and demand
response, is expected to total 43,346 MW this winter, according to the
statement.
Installed generation capacity amounts to 41,815 MW and imports of 679 MW are expected to be available for the winter period.
"Projected demand response resources, which enlist consumers to
reduce electricity use during peak conditions, equal 853 MW" and the
NYISO is forecasting a capacity margin of between 9,299 MW to 10,900 MW
depending on specific conditions, according to the grid operator's
statement.
