The amount of sugarcane crushed in the second half of May in Brazil's key Center-South region is expected to be 41.74 million mt, up 27.9% year on year, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts found Monday.
The proportion of cane used for sugar production in the Center-South in H2 May was expected to be 36.4%, an increase of 12.1% in comparison with the last 15 days of May in the 2018-19 crop, the survey showed.
"Sao Paulo, the largest cane sugar producing state was much drier than the CS average, with just 16.17 mm of rain, 63.9% below the normal, said Claudiu Covrig, senior sugar analyst with Platts Analytics. "As a result, we expect a 9.92 million mt year-on-year rise in the volume of cane crushed and a 3.67 million mt rise from H1 May to about 42.3 million mt in H2 May. However, we see a very small recovery in the sugar mix to 36.8% from 36.2% in H1 May but a more substantial rise from 32.5% a year earlier, when it rained heavily, because the sucrose content was higher due to drier weather and the seasonal pattern."
Among the 13 analysts surveyed, three producing houses were estimating total cane crush to be hovering near to 42 million mt, while one of the largest Brazilian producers was pointing to 40 million mt. There was a wide overall range between analysts surveyed moving from 37.7 million to 44 million mt.
Industry association UNICA is expected to release its official production figures within this week.
Analysts surveyed by Platts expected an average of 1.2 days lost to rain.
Expectations for the cane's total recoverable sugar (ATR) was at 125.9 kg/mt, or 5.6% less than the previous year's ATR of 133.39 kg/mt. From the analysts surveyed by Platts, the range was between 121.0 kg/mt and 133.82 kg/mt.
Sugar production was expected to total 1.830 million mt in H2 May, an increase of 36% year on year when 1.730 million mt was recorded in H2 May 2018.
If the estimates prove correct, it would be the highest sugar production for a 15-day period since the first half of September 2018, when 2.158 million mt were produced. Cumulative sugar production since April 1 would reach 4.805 million mt, a drop of 12.68% from the same period of the previous crop.
Hydrous ethanol output was estimated to reach 1.340 billion liters, according to the average of the analysts' survey an increase of 147 million liters, or 12.3% from the same period of the previous crop.
Anhydrous ethanol output in H2 May was expected to reach 639 million liters, much higher than 537 million liters produced during the same time period in the prior year.
