US shale oil production is poised to climb by nearly 83,000 b/d in June to average 8.46 million b/d for the month, with the Permian Basin accounting for the lion's share of growth, the US Energy Information Administration said Monday.
Oil production should rise in the Permian -- the largest domestic producing basin -- by 56,000 b/d in June to 4.173 million b/d, EIA said in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report, up from the 4.117 million b/d predicted for May.
During most of 2018, EIA forecast monthly increases for the basin typically in the 60,000-70,000 b/d range.
Permian Basin production generally has sailed ahead of other areas as operators have devised better well completion techniques and continued to figure out how to eke more crude from a number of the play's dozen or so productive horizons.
EIA's production figures for both May and June are estimates and subject to revision.
A small month-on-month drop in production is predicted for the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, and a bigger decrease is seen for the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma.
In June, EIA is eyeing a 942 b/d drop in production for the Eagle Ford to 1.425 million b/d, and the Anadarko Basin is predicted to decrease production by more than 6,600 b/d to about 547,500 b/d.
In the Bakken Shale next month, EIA has forecast an increase of nearly 16,000 b/d to about 1.420 million b/d.
The Niobrara Shale, found in both Colorado and Wyoming, is on track to increase output by about 14,300 b/d in June to slightly more than 752,000 b/d, the agency said.
DUCs DOWN
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells, or DUCs, fell last month for the first time since March 2018, although the number of Permian DUCs continued to rise.
The total number of domestic DUCs dropped in April to 8,390, down 43, although the number of Permian DUCs climbed by 47 to 3,964.
Observers have predicted DUC inventories to drop in the Permian each month from now until year-end, as some unfinished wells are produced in anticipation of new takeaway capacity in that basin coming online.
DUCs dropped in most other basins in April. The Anadarko Basin saw counts fall 26 to 998; the Eagle Ford was down 22 to 1,488; Appalachian DUCs were reduced by 19 to 460; the Niobrara Shale was down 13 DUCs to 545; and the Bakken Shale was down 12 to 714.
DUCs are often left uncompleted for timing reasons, since crews generally drill wells in a batch and then complete them the same way. Also, during periods of low oil prices, operators deliberately leave wells unfinished in anticipation of better oil prices, although prices have been have been over or very near $60/b the last couple of months.
