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Lack of consensus on precious metals price forecasts: LBMA

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2019-02-11   Views:66
There was no clear consensus among analysts on the direction of the gold price in 2019, although the average forecast of $1,311.71/oz signaled a modest 1.8% increase, industry body the London Bullion Market Association said Wednesday.

"While gold is causing even the professionals to scratch their heads, the picture is even less clear for the prospects of the other precious metals," the LBMA added. Gold was spot bid around $1,315/oz as of 0815 GMT Thursday.
The 30 analysts from banks, brokerages and other outlets predicted palladium would be the worst performing precious metal in 2019. They had wrongly predicted that same eventuality in 2018, when palladium continued on its longest bull run in history. The price for the time being appears to be taking a breather having topped out earlier in January around $1,440/oz on the physical spot market. The futures market, in a steep backwardation, has struggled with the $1,400/oz pivot -- meeting a lot of resistance.

The analysts predicted a 2019 average palladium price of $1,267.68/oz, a high of $1,715/oz and a low of $900/oz -- giving a huge $815 trading range; nearly two thirds of the average price. The price was spot bid at $1,336/oz as of 0815 GMT.

"With a wide trading range it could be a dramatic year in store for palladium," the LBMA added.

In a statement LBMA said that a wide trading range had been predicted for all of the metals -- platinum $430, gold $325 and silver $7.25 -- highlighting the fact that the analysts lack agreement on direction in 2019.

"While markets have factored in some of the downside risks of Brexit and US-China trade wars, other factors such as the level of US real interest rates, strength/weakness of the dollar and the likely impact of geopolitical factors continue to provide uncertainty," the LBMA added.

Analysts are predicting an average platinum price of $850.71/oz and an average silver price of $16.28/oz.
 
 
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