Increasing gas' share in the EU's energy mix from 26% in 2010 to 32% in 2050 could contribute to meeting the EU's goal to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% on 1990 levels by 2050, according to a study by European gas association Eurogas published Thursday.
In absolute terms, Eurogas foresees EU primary energy gas demand rising from 522 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 544 Bcm in 2030, and then falling back to 462 Bcm by 2050.
But gas' share will rise to 2050 as energy efficiency and behavioral changes cut the EU's overall energy demand, said Eurogas.
"Until 2030, natural gas is the fastest way to reduce emissions," said the chairman of Eurogas' forecasting task force, Laurent David from French gas incumbent GDF Suez.
These quick emission cuts in the short and medium term would come from switching to gas from high carbon fuels and increasing energy efficiency, David told the Eurogas annual conference in Brussels.
"From 2030 to 2050, technological progress, including carbon capture and storage and changes in behavior, will further favor gas," he said.
The study comes ahead of the European Commission's own 2050 energy roadmap, expected in December, which is to include different scenarios for decarbonizing the EU's energy sector by 2050.
The EC's specific energy roadmap follows a more general roadmap it published in March on ways for the EU to achieve a competitive low carbon economy by 2050. This included pathways for cutting the EU's greenhouse gas emissions by 80% on 1990 levels by 2050, a goal agreed by EU leaders.
