The NYMEX November natural gas futures contract rose moderately in early trading Monday as it rebounded off a fresh 11-month prompt low in the overnight session.
As of 10:15 a.m. EDT (1415 GMT), the contract was trading at $3.527/MMBtu, up 4.6 cents from its Friday close.
Ed Kennedy, a broker with Hencorp Becstone Futures, deemed the rebound relatively minor, saying the underlying supply/demand balance in the gas market has been largely unchanged for months. "There's nothing out there to get this puppy to rally in the short term."
Similarly, Kilduff Group analyst Mike Fitzpatrick said near-term, shoulder-season weather is likely to keep pressure on prices and could undercut the contract's attempt to rebound.
Kennedy said only severely cold weather is likely to get the contract to rally significantly in the long term. "The only thing that can get this thing going is if the wooly mammoth starts shivering ... [or] glaciers start forming over Chicago and New York."
Marketers pegged minor support at $3.40/MMBtu, with major support at $3.20/MMBtu. To the upside, sources cited $3.90/MMBtu as major resistance.
The contract has traded between $3.455/MMBtu and $3.537/MMBtu.
