The global refined copper market showed a deficit of 50,000 mt for the first eight months of 2017, according to a report released Monday by the International Copper Study Group.
The deficit was mainly due to stagnant growth in refined supply, the Lisbon-based research group said.
World mine production is estimated to have declined by around 2.2% in the first eight months of 2017 to 13.08 million mt, with concentrate production declining by around 1.5% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) declining by around 5%, the ICSG said.
The decline in mine production was mainly due to a 5% decline in production from Chile, the world's biggest miner, with output trimmed by a strike at the Escondida operation and lower production from Codelco's mines, the ICSG said.
Declines in Argentinian, Canadian and Mongolian concentrate production of 50%, 19% and 18%, respectively, also contributed to the fall in mine production.
Mine output was also affected by a 15% decline in Indonesian concentrate production caused by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April, as well as an 11% decline in US output due to lower ore grades, reduced mining rates and unfavorable weather conditions at the beginning of the year.
Those reductions were partially offset by 35% and 5% increases in Kazakh and Peruvian concentrate output, respectively, with both countries benefitting from new and expanded capacity that was not fully available in the same period of last year, the ICSG said.
Mexico, Myanmar, Spain and Sweden also contributed to world growth. On a regional basis, mine production is estimated to have declined in Africa by 1.5%, in the Americas by 4% and in Oceania by 2%, while increasing in Asia by 1% and in Europe (including Russia) by 2%, according to ICSG estimates.
REFINED PRODUCTION UNCHANGED
World refined production is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged in the first eight months of 2017 at 15.54 million mt, with primary electrolytic and electrowinning production declining by 1.5% and secondary production from scrap increasing by 10%.
"Increased availability of scrap allowed world secondary refined production to increase, notably in China," ICSG said. "The main contributor to growth in world refined production was China (6%), followed by India (8%) and some [European Union] countries recovering from maintenance shutdowns in 2016."
But overall growth was offset by an 10% decline in Chile, the second largest refined copper producer, where both primary electrolytic refined production and electrowinning production declined.
Production also declined in the third and fourth largest refined copper producers -- Japan, down 3.5%; and the US, down 9%, according to ICSG estimates.
On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in Asia (4.5%) and in Europe (4%), while declining in Africa (2%), in the Americas (9%) and in Oceania (8%).
WORLD APPARENT USAGE UNCHANGED
World apparent refined usage is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged in the first eight months at 15.59 million mt because improved scrap supply is constraining world refined copper usage growth globally in 2017, the ICSG said.
Preliminary data indicates that world ex-China usage might have increased by about 1%. However, China apparent usage -- currently representing almost 50% of world refined usage -- declined by 1%.
"Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in unreported stocks) declined by 1% because, although refined copper production increased by 6%, net imports of refined copper declined by 16%," ICSG analysts said.
Among other major copper-using countries, usage increased in India and Japan, but declined in the US, Germany and South Korea.
