Growing electric vehicle production will change the patterns of precious metals consumption by new and legacy automakers, research consultant Bodo Albrecht said Monday.
Speaking at the International Precious Metals Institute meeting in Orlando, Albrecht predicted that automotive catalysts using palladium, platinum and rhodium will disappear by 2040.
"Of course it will take forever to replace all the internal-combustion engine vehicles in the world, simply because people are keeping them for 10-12 years," he said.
"However, there are tipping points," Albrecht said, referring to a time when diesel fuel and gasoline can no longer be sold at current prices due to falling demand for internal combustion-engine vehicles.
In their place, electric vehicles -- including today's battery-electric hybrids and fuel-cell prototypes -- will consume varying amounts of precious and rare earth metals, he said.
Gasoline-powered vehicles today use mostly palladium and rhodium in their catalytic converters to control emissions, while diesel-powered vehicles use mostly platinum and rhodium.
Current fuel-cell vehicle prototypes use abbout 20-30 grams of platinum, but some manufacturers like Toyota are looking to reduce that amount to 6-8 grams of platinum, the amount currently used in today's catalytic converters.
Battery-electric vehicles, whose development has surpassed fuel-cell vehicles due to cost, use mostly rare earth metals.
"But they are both electronic gadgets," Albrecht said. "So if you look at gold and other precious metals used in electronic circuitry and computer screens, they're both pretty much equivalent."
Many companies driving the development of electric vehicles today, including Qualcomm, Google (Alphabet), Nvidia and Intel have their roots in information technology and telecommunications, Albrecht noted.
But legacy automakers including Honda, Toyota, Ford and Mercedes-Benz are also testing and developing new electric vehicles, he said.
As with the development of automobile catalytic converters in the 1970s, demand for electric vehicles will come from efforts to control pollution.
India has already decreed that all cars sold after 2030 must be electric, and China is already leading the world in electric vehicle demand, Albrecht said.
California, one of the largest auto markets in the US, has implemented stringent emissions standards that have been adopted globally, he added.
