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Gold price forecast to continue stable to higher: S&P Global Platts survey

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2017-05-23   Views:434
Gold was expected to remain well bid over the course of next week, following recent moves higher, respondents to the S&P Global Platts Gold Sentiment Survey said Friday.

Over the past seven days, gold traded higher, with the London Bullion Market Association Gold Price settling Friday morning at $1,251.85/oz compared with $1,227.90/oz a week earlier.

The highest settlement of the benchmark price this week was $1,261.35/oz on Thursday morning.

Last week, participants predicted a range of $1,230-$1,255/oz.

Forecasts for next week weighed in at $1,240-$1,290/oz Friday.

According to CME Fed Fund Futures Friday, the probability of a core US interest rate rise in June was 78.5% from 73% a week ago.

That appeared to have been priced in, with direction heavily influenced by a broader-based risk-off tone.

"In a market environment characterized by high risk aversion, the gold price initially climbed further to $1,265/oz [Thursday]. A somewhat recovering US dollar triggered profit-taking in the afternoon, which drove the gold price to below $1,250. All the same, gold appears to be in demand again as a safe haven at present," Commerzbank analysts said Friday.

Market talk this week centered around Commerzbank being set to exit the physical precious metals sector, although it will remain active in the futures business, sources close to the situation said.

One source said the bank will retain a presence in the futures market for the time being. Commerzbank recently sold its stake in the Argor refinery to Germany's Heraeus.

Elsewhere, ANZ published a bullish view on the outlook for gold.

"Rising geopolitical risks in the US and elsewhere are likely to propel prices even higher, despite the specter of a rate hike in the US next month. We see gold holding above $1,250/oz in the short term, and an increasingly possibility of it breaking through $1,300/oz this year if the political situation in the US worsens," ANZ said.

The Fed last raised rates in March and has previously targeted three increases this year.

Overall, respondents were almost certain prices will be stable to higher over the next seven days.

Physical buying in India was under a bit of pressure as the benchmark price tracked higher.

The Platts Gold Premium India assessed at 75 cents/oz Friday, from $1.50/oz a week ago.

Premiums in China, the world's number one physical consumer, were reported around $8-$10/oz, little changed week on week, although were heard as high as $13/oz Monday.

Prices in Dubai and Turkey were around flat to a small premium of 50 cents/oz to $1/oz.
 
 
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