Iranian petrochemical production could increase by more than 50% by 2020, according to industry consultants AmanpourConsult.
Iran currently produces 60 million mt of petrochemical products, but this could increase by at least 28 million mt between 2016 and 2020 with about half of the expansion coming through production of methanol.
Speaking at S&P Global Platts European Petrochemical Conference in Dusseldorf on Wednesday, Aman Amanpour said that investments in Iran would see ethylene production expand by 5 million mt, propylene by 5 million mt, methanol 15 million mt, MEG by 2 million mt and aromatics and derivatives by at least 2 million mt.
"The methanol figure of 15 million mt a year is particularly mind-boggling. It is high, but even if it is 10 million mt then it is huge and will have a big impact," Amanpour told the conference.
With global methanol production at around 80 million mt, according to the Methanol Institute, the capacity expansions would mean global supply increasing by almost 20%.
At least 4 million mt/year of new Iranian methanol capacity is due to come online in the next 12 months.
Kaveh Petrochemical Company's 2.3 million-2.5 million mt/year plant in Bandar Dayyer is expected to start commercial production by the end of this year while Marjan Petrochemical Company's 1.7 million mt/year plant at Assaluyeh is expected to start up by early 2018.
Much of the additional supply is expected to be exported to China, as Iran is already the biggest supplier of methanol to China - shipping on average 200,000 mt per month.
So far much of that supply has gone to fuel China's 14 methanol-to-olefin plants (as of end of 2015), but the sheer scale of expansion of methanol supply in Iran has sparked rumors the country might construct its own MTO plants and export olefins, polyolefins or monoethylene glycol.
"There is talk of an MTO project in Iran and I would not be surprised if it came about," said Eelco Dekker, chief representative of Europe for the industry body The Methanol Institute.
