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API ANALYSIS: Low imports, high runs cause crude stock-draw

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2011-08-31   Views:999
US commercial crude stocks declined 3.342 million barrels as imports dropped 735,000 b/d to 8.941 million b/d and inputs to refineries climbed, an analysis of the oil data released Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute showed.

Analysts polled by Platts had projected a build of 2 million barrels.

At 347.048 million barrels, US crude stocks were 9.71 million barrels below year-ago levels.

Crude supply/demand balances suggest there should have been a draw of 11.172 million barrels, but API does not include movement of inventories in and out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And the US government is still moving inventory from the SPR as part of its 30 million-barrel contribution to the International Energy Agency's 60 million-barrel release of stocks announced in June.

The largest decline was concentrated in the Midwest, where stocks fell 1.5 million barrels to 93.579 million barrels. Despite the overall drop in inventories in the Midwest, stocks at the delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, edged up 460,000 barrels to 33.649 million barrels, suggesting the decrease occurred farther north in the region.

A 309,000 b/d increase in crude runs -- to 15.746 million b/d -- also contributed to the decline in stocks. The bulk of the increase in crude runs was on the Gulf Coast where inputs rose 279,000 b/d to 8.036 million b/d. With crude runs this high, imports would have to have been closer to 10 million b/d to prevent a stock-draw.

The bearish offset to the crude data was a 6.365 million-barrel build in gasoline stocks, with implied demand taking a tumble. Gasoline demand dropped 596,000 b/d to 8.856 million b/d.

At 213.906 million barrels, US gasoline stocks were 12.323 million barrels below year-ago levels.

Analysts polled by Platts had expected a draw in gasoline stocks of 1.4 million barrels.

A jump in imports of 140,000 b/d to 748,000 b/d contributed to the gasoline stock-build.

While stocks of middle distillates rose 1.966 million barrels, inventory-building started late in the season and has been very modest.

Analysts polled by Platts had projected a build of 1.3 million barrels.

At 152.832 million barrels, stocks of middle distillates were 16.769 million barrels below year-ago levels.

 
 
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