In mid September, the domestic ABS market continued to rise, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 25th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12,050 RMB/ton, with a +11.06% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.
In terms of supply: Recently, the ABS industry has experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 90%. Compared to the previous period, there has been a narrow pullback, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. As a result, the supply side has decreased its support for the spot market.
In terms of raw materials: Currently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has fallen and remained flat. The acrylonitrile market is at a high and strong level. The price of propylene is adjusted after rising, and the cost is still supporting acrylonitrile; The main downstream construction starts relatively high; Last week, the load of domestic acrylonitrile units slightly decreased, with slight support from the supply and demand side. It is expected that acrylonitrile may be stable, medium to strong in the short term.
Last week, the high price of butadiene was sorted and operated. In the early stage, the downstream synthetic rubber market remained buoyant, with tight expectations for the supply of butadiene rubber, driving bullish sentiment in the spot market. But downstream products are under pressure, with negative feedback to the demand side for butadiene. The market's acceptance of high priced goods has decreased, and some merchants are flexible in taking orders. It is expected that the butadiene market will continue to consolidate in the short term.
Recently, the styrene market has significantly declined. International oil prices have fallen, pure benzene prices have followed suit, and cost support has collapsed. In addition, the low level of port inventory in the early stage and the favorable dual reserve situation have basically exhausted, and the market guidance is relatively short, making it difficult for the styrene market to rise or fall.
In terms of demand: In the early stage, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, showed a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. However, as downstream enterprises gradually complete pre holiday stocking, the activity of on-site trading has significantly declined. In addition, after the previous price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers was affected, and overall trading weakened.
Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fallen and leveled, which has loosened support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants is at a high level, leading to the accumulation of social inventory. The demand side support has weakened, and pre holiday stocking consumption has gradually subsided. It is expected that the ABS market may still be weak in the short term.
