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SunSirs: The Fundamental Weakness gradually Appeared, China POM Market Fell in 2022

Increase font size  Decrease font size Date:2023-01-06   Views:35

  According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the POM market in 2022 began to run at 20,666.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall in early July. As of December 31, 2022, the POM price was 13,933.33 RMB/ton, a decline of 32.58% throughout the year. The trend was high before and low after, with a large decline.

  The trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly divided into two stages:

  The first stage: deadlock stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of POM was 20,666.67 RMB/ton on January 1 and 21,333.33 RMB/ton on June 30, with a range increase of 3.23%. POM In the first quarter of 2022, the supply of goods continued to be tight in 2021, and the price rose at a high level. From the end of March to the end of June, although the supply side remained tight, the market demand began to decline in full authority. At the same time, the stock position began to rise. By the middle of the year, the stock in the market was high, and the price position driven by the strong market in 2021 began to loosen. At the whole stage, the market remained stuck at a high level.

  The second stage: weak decline stage. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the POM price fell rapidly from 21,333.33 RMB/ton on June 30 to 13,933.33 RMB/ton on December 31. The overall price hit the bottom and fell by 34.69%. At the beginning of this stage, POM officially entered the traditional demand off-season market, and the consumption of downstream enterprises was weak, and there was no large-scale replenishment in procurement. In addition, the high level of inventory at the end of June was taken over, and the bad news was superimposed. The spot price fell rapidly. The decline was concentrated in the three months of the third quarter, including the traditional peak season of "nine gold and ten silver", which also failed to stimulate demand. The peak season of POM in 2022 is not prosperous. In the second half of the year, the industry load and supply remain at a high level, while the demand has not improved. After the market fell rapidly, it found a balance point. Around October, the price level was about 13,500 RMB/ton, which was stable and dynamic until the end of the year.

  Overall, the trend of POM market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

  The POM market was dragged down by the weakening demand of terminal enterprises. The development of the industry remained stable, and high-end models relied on imports. The supply side is under pressure when the enterprise starts at a high level.

  POM analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic POM industry will develop steadily in 2022, the demand of downstream enterprises will gradually lag behind, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be obvious in the second half of the year. The upstream operates with vibration, and the cost end is generally supported. The load of POM enterprises is high in the second half of the year, and the inventory pressure is high. On the macro level, the current global inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, the wide fluctuation of oil prices driven by European geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of domestic health events, and the devaluation of the RMB have all had negative effects on the POM market to varying degrees. To sum up, in 2022, the POM industry will suffer from bad news, and the activities will tend to be conservative with average market momentum. It is expected that China POM market will continue to weaken due to insufficient demand.

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