According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic methanol market has fluctuated widely. From November 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market increased from 2,425 RMB/ton to 2,510 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 3.50% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 6.13%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.08%.
Towards the end of November, the domestic methanol market rebounded and rose. Several production enterprises in certain regions have raised their factory quotations by 50-100 RMB/ton, guiding the market atmosphere to improve. At the same time, natural gas exports are restricted, supply is reduced, and cost is favorable for the methanol market. In some areas, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance, and inventory pressure has slightly eased. The prices of some downstream products have risen, and the main source of supply has been gradually replenished. I have also heard that some sources of goods have been contaminated, which may affect the inventory situation at the port.
As of the close on November 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2401, opened at 2,434 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,504 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,428 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,501 RMB/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 81% or 3.35% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,147,930 lots, and the position was 846,471 lots, with a daily increase of -44,173.
In terms of cost and supply, the demand for coal in the market has not performed well, overall inventory remains high, seasonal replenishment efforts are limited, and there is a lack of upward support for pit prices. In the short term, it will continue to operate weakly and steadily. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, stable production in the acetic acid and MTBE industries; Downstream formaldehyde: The formaldehyde industry saw a significant decrease in operating rates due to the reduction of load on Shandong Hengying equipment and the shutdown of Puyang Pengxin equipment; Downstream Dimethyl Ether: The Dimethyl Ether Industry's Jiujiang Xinlian Dimethyl Ether Plant has been put into operation, and the industry's operating rate has increased. The demand for methanol is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of a set of equipment in Datang Duolun, Guangju New Materials, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, and Shanxi; Shanxi Tianze and Jiujiang Xinlianxin, as well as one set of equipment and devices each in Shanxi and Heilongjiang, have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on November 29th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $344.00-$345.00 per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 107.00-108.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 349.00-350.00 euros/ton, down 4.25 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, natural gas exports are restricted, supply is reduced, and cost is favorable for the methanol market. In some areas, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance, and inventory pressure has slightly eased. Downstream prices of some products have risen, and the main source of supply has been gradually replenished. Methanol analysts from the company predict that the domestic methanol market may rebound.
