According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 7th to 13th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market increased from 2,447 RMB/ton to 2,480 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 1.36%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.08%, a month on month increase of 0.50%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.54%.
Affected by international events, crude oil prices have risen, coupled with a significant decline in port inventory, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a strengthening of domestic methanol market prices. Subsequently, influenced by the trend of commodities, the methanol futures market fell, and the atmosphere in the mainland market quickly weakened, causing the methanol market to fluctuate and consolidate.
As of the close of October 13th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has increased. The main contract for methanol futures 2401, opened at 2,453 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,462 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,423 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,441 RMB/ton in the late trading session, up 13% or 0.504% from the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 906,539 hands, the position was 1,328,759 hands, and the daily increase was -17,656.
In terms of cost, most coal mines in the main production areas currently maintain normal production and sales, with the exception of some mines that are still in a state of rectification, and the overall supply is basically stable. In the short term, coal prices tend to be strong. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, and MTBE industries are all planning to restart their equipment, and demand may show an increasing trend; The planned maintenance of the chloride device at Shandong Jinling Dongying Plant has resulted in a decrease in chloride demand. The demand for acetic acid may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Northwest Energy, Inner Mongolia and Baitai, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Ningxia Qinghua, as well as maintenance of one set of equipment in Xinjiang, two sets in Shandong, and one set in Ningxia; Shanxi CITIC and Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian) plants have reduced production; Reply to a set of devices from Inner Mongolia Guotai and Shanxi. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.
In terms of external trading, as of the close of October 12th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $356.00- $357.00/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 85.00-90.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 292.50-293.50 euros/ton, up 13.5 euros/ton.
In the future, coal prices are relatively strong and cost support still exists. Expected increase in supply and inventory in mainland China, with downstream or just in demand procurement being the main focus. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.
