According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 21st to August 9th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China increased from 8,564 RMB/ton to 9,685 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 13.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%. The raw material of pure benzene was repeatedly raised to 7,750 RMB/ton, with good cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents followed up just in needed, and the supply of cyclohexanone products was average. Driven by costs, the low price in the market had decreased, and the transaction focus continued to rise.
Analysis review
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic market price of pure benzene continued to rise. Since the end of June, driven by the positive factors of international crude oil fluctuations, the price of pure benzene had been steadily rising. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in SunSirs was 7,772.17 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.66% compared to the beginning of this month (7,287.17 RMB/ton). In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounted for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affected the price of cyclohexanone, and in the short term, the cost will be positive for the market of cyclohexanone .
On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone was about 6.55 million tons, and the operating load was around 60%, which was at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises included Shijiazhuang Coking, Shandong Hongda, Jining Zhongyin, Shandong Haili, and Jiangsu Haili for equipment maintenance, with limited product supply. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors. In the short term, the supply of cyclohexanone will be positive for the market of cyclohexanone.
On the demand side, cyclohexanone units were mainly equipped with downstream CPL production, and CPL was one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, and cost support was strengthened. Under cost pressure, the spot price of CPL continued to rise with the trend of raw material prices. Partial equipment maintenance of CPL had resulted in a decrease in market availability, and downstream followed up on demand. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of CPL in SunSirs was 12,987.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.08% compared to the beginning of this month (12,600.00 RMB/ton). The demand side of cyclohexanone had a positive impact.
Market outlook
With the high price increase of cyclohexanone, the downstream chemical fiber and solvent prices had slowed down, and the market was in a weak equilibrium state. In the future, it is necessary to observe the impact of the price of raw material pure benzene on cyclohexanone. SunSirs’cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.
