This week (7.11-15) the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded after falling. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the weekly increase was 4.32%, and the cumulative increase this week reached 300-500 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
Many big manufacturers raised prices successively this week, with a cumulative increase of over 300 RMB/ton. But urea prices were still low, and downstream demand was still weak. The decline in ammonia volume in the region was affected by the load reduction of some enterprises, the supply pressure was significantly relieved, and the inventory of enterprises and the market was still in the process of destocking. As of the weekend, the mainstream price in the region was 3,750-3,950 RMB/ton.
Judging from the monitoring data of SunSirs, the profit of the liquid ammonia industry chain was still in a reasonable range, and the price of liquid ammonia had rebounded, but the downstream was generally relatively weak. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, mid-stream and downstream products such as urea and compound fertilizer were still difficult to stop falling, and corporate profits were facing the test. Ammonium chloride, urea, and melamine all fell to varying degrees.
Market outlook
SunSirs believes that at present, the supply pressure of the domestic liquid ammonia market has been greatly relieved. Affected by the sharp decline in prices, more companies have installed load reductions. In addition to the influence of maintenance companies, the price of liquid ammonia continues to rebound. However, considering that the decline of downstream compound fertilizers is difficult to stop and the demand is still restricted, it is expected that liquid ammonia may not continue to rise.
