According to the monitoring sample data of SunSirs, as of the afternoon of January 11, the average enterprises price of melamine was 9,783.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.21% compared with the price on last Tuesday (January 4). The price fell by 23.13% compared to the price on December 11, and fell by 45.34% in a three-month cycle.
Analysis review
Recently, the melamine market has been stable and has been adjusted upwards. On the cost side, the price of raw material urea has risen recently, and the cost support has risen. On the supply side, some maintenance devices have been restored one after another, and the operating rate has increased. On the demand side, the export market supported the market, and the domestic trade demand gradually weakened. At present, melamine enterprises mostly execute advance orders, and delivery is acceptable.Upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 11, up 2.57% from January 4. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have stopped falling recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is accelerating, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. In some areas, agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase, and chemical fertilizer storage in winter was accelerated. The market price of melamine consolidated at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market discussions was weakened. From the perspective of supply: some gas head enterprises have not yet completed the maintenance, and the supply of urea is tight. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is strengthened, urea supply is insufficient, and urea will rise slightly in the market outlook.
Market outlook
The melamine analyst of SunSirs believes that the current raw material urea price is rising, the cost support is strengthened, the melamine operating rate is high, and export orders have a certain support for the market, but the domestic trade demand is light, and the short-term market atmosphere is acceptable. The melamine market may be stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidelines.
