Price trend
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong market was 880 RMB/ton, and the average price of caustic soda in Shandong market on weekends was around 995 RMB/ton, the price rose by 13.07%, and the price rose by 105.15% from the same period last year. On December 23, the caustic soda commodity index was 140.29, which was the same as previous day, a decrease of 47.15% from the highest point in the cycle of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 115.47% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 09, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
Analysis review
The price of caustic soda rose this week. The current mainstream ex-factory price of 32% alkali in Shandong is around 950-1,010 RMB/ton. The mainstream ex-factory price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is around 950-1,100 RMB/ton. The increase in caustic soda is mainly due to factory maintenance, environmental inspections at the end of the year and the arrival of the Winter Olympics. It is expected that the supply will decrease, the inventory of enterprises will fall, and the price of caustic soda will rise.
Downstream: Shandong alumina purchase prices have been raised, the demand for caustic soda is better than in the previous period, the purchase enthusiasm is better, and the price of caustic soda has risen.
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 50th week of 2021 (12.13-12.17), the chlor-alkali industry price rises and falls list includes 0 commodities with rises, 4 commodities with declines, and 1 commodity with 0 fluctuations. The main commodities that fell were: light soda ash (-5.93%), PVC (-2.54%), and hydrochloric acid (-1.99%). The average increase and decrease this week was -2.3%.
Market outlook
SunSirs’analysts believe that recently, the overall transaction of caustic soda is better than the previous period, and the supply is expected to decrease. The downstream alumina demand is better than the previous period, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.
